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Tuesday, April 27, 2010


Stage Addiction: UPDATE, 2010 Tony Nomination Predictions


The Tony Award nominations are next week, so it's time for ModFab to play a little inside Broadway baseball. In this very uneven season, the highs and lows are startingly clear when you begin to look at the award categories -- some with intense competition, others that struggle to find enough quality performances to fill out a full roster. Today, we'll begin with the performers in a play:

Norbert Leo Butz, Enron
Alfred Molina, Red
Liev Schreiber, A View from the Bridge
Christopher Walken, A Behanding in Spokane
Denzel Washington, Fences

Dark Horses: Patrick Breen, Next Fall; Hugh Jackman, A Steady Rain; Jude Law, Hamlet
Long Shot: Daniel Craig, A Steady Rain
Also Rans: Michael Cerveris, In the Next Room, or the Vibrator Play; Victor Garber, Present Laughter; Josh Grisetti, Brighton Beach Memoirs; Gregory Itzin, Enron; Michael McKean, Superior Donuts; Jonny Lee Miller, After Miss Julie; Bill Pullman, Oleanna; James Spader, Race

A simple rule: never bet against Streep at the Oscars...or Jackman at the Tonys. But I'm doing just that; it's been a long time since the ho-hum Steady Rain closed last fall, and Jackman was hardly the only Hollywood heartthrob slumming it on the Rialto this year. I'm going with more recent turns by big stars for the nominations, plus a perennial Broadway favorite, Tony winner Butz (Dirty Rotten Scoundrels), who is surprisingly brilliant in Enron. I'd be surprised, however, if Molina doesn't stomp the competition come June.

Viola Davis, Fences
Valerie Harper, Looped
Linda Lavin, Collected Stories
Laura Linney, Time Stands Still
Jan Maxwell, The Royal Family

Dark Horse: Laura Benanti, In the Next Room, or the Vibrator Play; Carrie Fisher, Wishful Drinking
Long Shot: Alison Pill, The Miracle Worker
Also Rans: Sienna Miller, After Miss Julie; Julia Stiles, Oleanna

Watch out for Benanti and Pill; both have their advocates among Tony voters.

Stephen Kunken, Enron
Sam Rockwell, A Behanding in Spokane
Eddie Redmayne, Red
Tony Shalhoub, Lend Me A Tenor
Mykelti Williamson, Fences

Dark Horses: Michael Cristofer, A View from the Bridge; Brian d'Arcy James, Time Stands Still
Long Shot: David Alan Grier, Race; Reg Rogers, The Royal Family
Also Rans: Justin Bartha, Lend Me A Tenor; Patrick Heusinger, Next Fall; Jon Michael Hill, Superior Donuts; Anthony Mackie, A Behanding in Spokane; Noah Robbins, Brighton Beach Memoirs; Tony Robbins, The Royal Family; Cotter Smith, Next Fall

Again, Fences is the question mark: there are a number of performances that could cut through in this category -- Russell Hornsby, Chris Chalk, etc. -- but I doubt Tony nominators will make room for more than one, so I'm (rather arbitrarily) picking Williamson. Shalhoub, Redmayne and Kunken are locks; I'm a fan of Rockwell and Spokane in general, but old-school Tony voters might prefer Michael Cristofer's gently tragic turn in A View from the Bridge.

Viola Davis, Fences
Jessica Hecht, A View from the Bridge
Scarlett Johansson, A View from the Bridge
Jan Maxwell, Lend Me a Tenor
Marin Mazzie, Enron

Dark Horse: Alicia Silverstone, Time Stands Still
Long Shot: Rosemary Harris, The Royal Family; Kerry Washington, Race
Also Rans: Abigail Breslin, The Miracle Worker; Marin Ireland, After Miss Julie; Zoe Kazan, A Behanding in Spokane; Sarah Paulson, Collected Stories

So Viola Davis, if she indeed ends up in this category, is a mortal lock. I've gone out on a limb with a double-nomination prediction for the actresses of AVftB, but they were both stunning. As was Maxwell, who I'm guessing will get two nominations of her own this year. Personally, I'm hoping that Mazzie's career-changing work in Enron (Remember that sex scene? Wowsa!) will trump Silverstone's better-than-expected turn in Time Stands Still (and the career legacy effect of Rosemary Harris).

Tomorrow...the musicals!
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Blogger Vance said...

YAY! I love these posts. I wish there were a bit more love for Jude Law and Patrick Heusinger, both in the too-hot-to-take-seriously category even tho both put in great performances, but I can see why others might trump.

4/27/10, 2:37 PM  

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