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Monday, November 03, 2008

 

One More Day.


[Design For Obama]

FiveThirtyEight makes a marvelous case for what's TRULY going to matter tomorrow. I've got some excerpts below, but you should read the whole thing.

This is beginning to look like a five-state election: Virginia, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Nevada. Essentially all relevant electoral scenarios involve some combination of these five states.

The victory conditions for Obama involving these five states proceed something as follows:

1. Win Pennsylvania and ANY ONE of Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, or Nevada*
2. Win Ohio and EITHER Colorado OR Virginia.
3. Win Colorado AND Virginia AND Nevada.

(* Nevada produces a 269-269 tie, which would probably be resolved for Obama in the House of Represenatives.)

Now, suppose you think that Colorado is already in the bag for Obama because of his large edge in early voting there. We can then simplify the victory conditions as follows:

1. Win Pennsylvania
2. Win Ohio
3. Win Virginia AND Nevada
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2 Comments:

Blogger qta said...

hey boo.... this should make you feel better:

Today's electoral map:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/

and on this day 4 years ago:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Nov03.html

Head up young person!

11/3/08, 8:54 AM  
Blogger Dr. S said...

This Ohioan's going to the poll at noon sharp. Feel our hope!

11/4/08, 1:40 AM  

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