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Thursday, August 21, 2008



McCain has taken a statistically significant lead over Barack Obama for the first time this year, a five-point margin (that, in total, includes a 12-point slide toward the Republicans since July 4). I don't know what to be more disgusted by: the fact that McCain's sleazy attack ads and easily-disproved lies are working, the abysmal general election performance of Obama so far, the destructive schism still being wreaked by Clinton supporters in advance of the convention, or the total failure of any major media outlet to report McCain's failures instead of bashing Obama at every turn.

Ultimately, this decline rests on Obama, who is losing the battle through lack of will, effort, or (ouch) experience. That's just a fact, and I'm genuinely concerned that he won't be able to transform the discussion against a sleazy fuck like McCain, who seems thrilled to wallow in mud. (If he ever actually was a "maverick," "straight talker" or "war hero," we've now learned the truth this month once and for all...McCain is nothing but a two-faced, bullshit politician of the worst craven order, who has no plan for our country or any leadership skills whatsoever.) Obama's also got to battle the media, who have it out for him in spades.

This isn't going well, is it? Somebody, please, show me an upside...

UPDATE: This scary tidbit of history repeating comes from Electoral-Vote.com:
While voters constantly complain about negative ads, campaigns use them because they work. A new LA Times National Poll shows that a month of ads attacking Obama as a lightweight unready to lead have erased his lead nationally. The two are in a statistical tie. Obama's advantage in the electoral college has also vanished. If you compare the 2008 electoral college graph with the 2004 one, the parallels are striking. Kerry led throughout the summer until the Swift Boat ad kicked in, and it was downhill from there. Kerry never recovered.

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Blogger FleshPresser said...

Take a breath... it's not Labor Day yet. Part of the reason that this poll has happened is simply by virtue of the fact that McCain has a shitload of money that he has to spend prior to Labor Day, at which point he'll be on the Public Finance track. Obama is spending money nationwide on "feel good" ads and is running VERY harsh, targeted ads locally across the country right now.

Look for a bump in the next few days, potentially, depending on who Obama chooses as his running mate (since our country won't allow a "non-moral" candidate - and don't even get me started on THAT rant - my dream ticket of Obama/Edwards is crushed... but I'm pulling for Sebelius... Kansas would be a nice pick-up, as well).

There'll be another bump following the Convention, potentially, as long as Clinton supporters don't turn the proceedings into a circus.

I truly believe that the polls fall hand-in-hand with the media, and it's important for the poll numbers to remain close, in order to feed the ravenous media machine, who then in turn reciprocates by making the poll numbers relevant.

I live in PA... not an incredibly Red State, but not an incredibly Blue State, either... and I live in the Lehigh Valley - often viewed as a swing region of a swing state. When I can even get people to THINK about the election (and stop talking about Michael Phelps and Usain Bolt), I have yet to find ANYONE who's supporting McCain... no one... not a soul. My VERY conservative and traditionally Republican in-laws aren't even supporting him.

Granted, this is a most unscientific way of determining such things, but at least in my backyard, I don't see the polls as being significant... at least at this point.

I agree with you about the way the Obama campaign has been proceeding, but they've just come off of a BRUISING primary with Clinton, and I think things'll be fine once we get into the Campaign proper... I mean, think about it... while McCain was running these ads, Obama was on vacation in Hawaii... so it's not like he was trying to turn things around at this point. I'd be far more concerned if he were out on the road campaigning hard and the numbers started turning... know what I mean?

8/21/08, 9:37 AM  
Blogger qta said...

I don't know if I can agree with Fleshpresser. I have to agree with you here ModFab. Obama is having some rather serious problems here. As I said way back when.... The Republicans are going to come hard and heavy and negative, and as much as Obama may earnestly want to change things about how politics and races are run... he is going to have to start landing some serious punches if he really wants to win. McCain's ads... nauseating as they are, are working. And it is not the disgruntled Hillary supporters that are hurting Obama right now. Obama is not (at the moment)running the race he needs to run to win. This country needs to see him fight for it.

Where I do agree with FP is that the money situation is about to really turn around due to public financing. But that alone doesn't guarantee an Obama victory.

Look. Obama should be running away with this race right now. Econ. in the toilet, war, a very unpopular president from a very unpopular party. Frankly... this is really his for the taking... or his for the losing. And he really needs o step it up before he risks turning his (and an entire generation's)dream of change into another run by Kerry, Gore, Dukakis, Mondale, or McGovern.

Now, as you know... I support Obama for president... however heartbroken I may be that my candidate did not win. I will vote for him... because I cannot have a John McCain presidency.

Here is how I think Obama can win it:

1. get tough! Fight back! and fight hard. I know it is not nice... but nice isn't going to win the presidency in this country.

2. Scrap Kaine, Sebelius, and Bayh. We will not win Kansas with anyone, Kaine is anti-choice (and it is unforgivable for us to ignore choice, and Bayh is just flat. He wont help is nationwide.

3. Go with Clinton. Yes there are many Clinton supporters who are not automatically flocking to Obama's side. And why they? Just because? That is not good enough. Party Unity? also not good enough. The quickest way for Obama to surge way ahead of McCain is to pick Hillary as his #2. Then he will have party unity full on. Then he will have an attack dog to do the dirty work that needs to be done, and he can keep his hands clean a while longer. Like it or not Obama supporters and Clinton supporter alike... together they are unstopable.

4. If he has to go with someone else... please make it Biden. He has a big mouth! He is loud and he can fight.

8/21/08, 12:38 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

It's been two months since Clinton suspended her campaign. He has had the stage since June, and his poll numbers have trended down during that time. McCain's juvenile attacks have been effective, and Obama has been negligent in fighting back.

It's very disturbing to think that this might be heading in a Kerry-esque direction. Obama has ten weeks to right the ship. He needs to get started yesterday.

8/21/08, 12:47 PM  
Blogger Barry Rowell said...

Gotta agree with Fleshpresser here, ModFab: it's more like a marathon than a dash. Remember that Phelps won his 27th gold medal (maybe it was 28th, I lost count) in the last millisecond against the Serbians: he made a big push at the last instant while the Serbian swimmer was content to glide into the touchpad... and that kind of cockiness is more like McCain than Obama!

Courage, mon frére!

8/21/08, 12:48 PM  
Blogger NATHANIEL R said...

yeah i think it's too early. Obama went on vacation during the olympics for a reason right. this is the moment when people will care the least about the election.

8/21/08, 5:20 PM  
Blogger xolondon said...

Obama is about to come out tough. Just watch. And when the debates happen, I feel quite confident in Obama.

Now if the Republicans try and drum up a new Cold War, there are enough stupid Americans who'd believe we are safer with him.

8/21/08, 7:02 PM  
Blogger John T said...

I agree with QTA on almost all accounts (I don't think Biden's a good second to Hillary-I'd go with Clark or Chet Edwards or some other pit bull). Obama needs to go with Hillary-she's the best way to secure 270, and this election is too important to lose. The environment, civil liberties, ending the war, the economy, human rights-they're all on the line. Picking HIllary pushes him over the edge-go with it (plus she's a fighter-she'll be able to scrap anything that McCain throws their way).

8/21/08, 9:32 PM  
Blogger Jill said...

I'm with ModFab. Americans are idiots. I actually have a friend who believes that Barack Obama will destroy this country. I'm in no way comforted by her belief that John McCain will do the same. She's gotten the smear e-mails from her friends and chosen to believe them...and nothing I send her changes her mind.

We are a racist country. We are a country full of spoiled, mean-spirited, frightened, incurous little people who believe everything the electronic box tells them, and never stop to think that there are giant corporations with an agenda behind the talking heads they still believe speak the truth.

8/21/08, 9:34 PM  

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