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Wednesday, December 12, 2007

 

Predictions For The Golden Globe Nominations

The Golden Globe nominations are announced tomorrow and, despite their questionable predictive accuracy, they are still seen as the most important precusor to the Oscars. My picks and comments are below. (And yes, I skipped the San Francisco and Broadcast Film Critics who announced yesterday. But here are my reasons: SF has no clout, and BFC is an industry-wide joke. Why waste my time AND yours?)

MODFAB'S 2007 GOLDEN GLOBE PREDICTIONS

BEST PICTURE: DRAMA
American Gangster
Atonement
Michael Clayton
No Country For Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Dark Horses: The Assassination of Jessie James by the Coward Robert Ford; The Diving Bell and the Butterfly; Into The Wild

I feel relatively certain about Clayton, Country and Blood...but what happens after that, I'm not sure. Have enough HFPA members seen Atonement to realize that it's seriously weaker than its source material? (And will they care?) Is Denzel's star power bigger than Pitt's...and is it enough to put American Gangster into that fifth slot?

BEST PICTURE: MUSICAL/COMEDY
Charlie Wilson's War
Enchanted
Hairspray
Juno
Sweeney Todd
Dark Horses: Knocked Up; Lars and the Real Girl; Once; The Savages

As you'll see below, I'm banking that Knocked Up will do better with the Hollywood Foreign Press than it did with other critics' groups. But I don't have the stones to put it in the top five here...Enchanted and Juno are hits of the moment, which helps people forget the hits of last summer. A nomination for Once would make me very happy, indeed.

BEST DIRECTOR
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Tim Burton, Sweeney Todd
Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country For Old Men
Sean Penn, Into The Wild
Joe Wright, Atonement
Dark Horses: Sidney Lumet, Before The Devil Knows You're Dead; Sarah Polley, Away From Her; Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

As I've mentioned before, I think Todd Haynes and his movie are out of it for the year, as is Ang Lee. I was a hair's breadth away from putting Schnabel in over Wright, but decided to go with the more conservative choice. Hope I don't regret it.

BEST ACTOR: DRAMA
Josh Brolin, No Country For Old Men
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Daniel Day Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Frank Langella, Starting Out In The Evening
James McAvoy, Atonement
Dark Horses: Emile Hirsch, Into The Wild; Philip Seymour Hoffman, Before The Devil Knows You're Dead; Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises; Denzel Washington, American Gangster

I'm less certain than most people about the McAvoy surge; I think Hirsch might take his spot, but I hated Into the Self-Indulgent Wild so much, I just couldn't write his name down.

BEST ACTRESS: DRAMA
Julie Christie, Away From Her
Jodie Foster, The Brave One
Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart
Ashley Judd, Bug
Kiera Knightley, Atonement
Dark Horses: Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age; Tang Wei, Lust, Caution

Ugh. What a category. Made even less interesting by the death grip of Julie Christie. Have to say, though, that I just saw Away From Her on DVD, and the praise for Christie is completely justified...she's magnificent.

BEST ACTOR: COMEDY/MUSICAL
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd
Ryan Gosling, Lars and the Real Girl
Tom Hanks, Charlie Wilson's War
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Savages
Seth Rogen, Knocked Up
Dark Horses: Don Cheadle, Talk To Me; Ben Kingsley, You Kill Me; Jack Nicholson, The Bucket List; John Travolta, Hairspray

Again, a weak category. It hurts me as much as it hurts you to suggest a Travolta nomination.

BEST ACTRESS: COMEDY/MUSICAL
Amy Adams, Enchanted
Helena Bonham Carter, Sweeney Todd
Marion Cotillard, La Vie En Rose
Laura Linney, The Savages
Ellen Page, Juno
Dark Horses: Nikki Blonsky, Hairspray; Katherine Heigl, Knocked Up; Keri Russell, Waitress

If the Globes fete Adams as I'm expecting them too, will that make Disney perk up and try to muscle an Oscar nomination for Enchanted? Perhaps...

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jessie James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem, No Country For Old Men
Hal Holbrook, Into The Wild
Max Von Sydow, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
Dark Horses: Sacha Baron Cohen, Sweeney Todd; Paul Dano, There Will Be Blood; Ben Foster, 3:10 To Yuma; Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War; Tommy Lee Jones, No Country For Old Men; Alan Rickman, Sweeney Todd

Not sure about that Von Sydow pick, but I know how much Nathaniel loves that performance, so I'm standing united with him over the Sweeney boys.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Sairose Ronan, Atonement
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
Marisa Tomei, Before The Devil Knows You're Dead
Dark Horses: Ruby Dee, American Gangster; Taraji P. Henson, Talk To Me; Jennifer Jason Leigh, Margot At The Wedding; Kelly MacDonald, No Country For Old Men; Vanessa Redgrave, Atonement

I hate that Ronan choice of mine -- I don't think she does the heavy lifting in Atonement that's really required of the role -- but at the end of the day she's got the best shot of all the dark horses.

BEST SCREENPLAY
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Diablo Cody, Juno
Ronald Harwood, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, No Country For Old Men
Aaron Sorkin, Charlie Wilson's War
Dark Horses: Judd Apatow, Knocked Up; David Benioff, The Kite Runner; Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton; Christopher Hampton, Atonement; Kelly Masterson, Before The Devil Knows You're Dead; Tamara Jenkins, The Savages; Nancy Oliver, Lars and the Real Girl; Sean Penn, Into The Wild

I'm expecting the big guns to dominate here, with It Writer Diablo Cody squeezing past titans like Benioff and Hampton (and past her far superior newcomer siblings Masterson and Jenkins). I'm also praying to both Jesus and Muhammad that David Benioff's terrible script loses any and all momentum.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"Come So Far (Got So Far To Go)," Hairspray
"Do You Feel Me," American Gangster
"Lyra," The Golden Compass
"If You Want Me," Once
"Rise," Into The Wild
Dark Horses: "Falling Slowly," Once; "Guaranteed," Into The Wild; "Ladies' Choice," Hairspray

Who the hell knows at this point. Totally my guesses.


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Alexandre Desplat, Lust, Caution
Johnny Greenwood, There Will Be Blood
Glen Hansard and Marketa Irglova, Once
Michael Brook with Kaki King and Eddie Vedder,
Into The Wild
Nick Cave and Warren Ellis,
The Assassination of Jessie James by the Coward Robert Ford
Dark Horses: Mark Isham, In the Valley of Elah;
Dario Marianelli, Atonement; Michael Giacchino, Ratatouille; Howard Shore, Eastern Promises

I'm purposely leaving that Kite Runner score off the list; it was abominably distracting.

BEST FOREIGN FILM
4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days (Romania)
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (France)
La Vie En Rose (France)
Lust, Caution (China)
Persepolis (France)
Dark Horses: The Orphanage; Ten Canoes

No tough restrictions (I don't think) like the Oscars have about selections here. So I'm guessing the following...although if you want to see other options, here's the place to go.

BEST ANIMATED FILM
Bee Movie
Beowulf
Persepolis
Ratatouille
Shrek The Third
Dark Horses: The Simpsons Movie , Alvin and the Chipmunks

On some level, all that matters is the showdown here between Persepolis and Ratatouille...which will then have a rematch at the Oscars.

Previous 2008 Oscar-ology:
- New York Film Critics Flout L.A.
- Boston, Los Angeles Critics Weigh In
- National Board of Review Winners
- Golden Satellite Nominations
- Independent Spirit Nominations

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3 Comments:

Anonymous Robbie @ http://toonsntunes.wordpress.com said...

I'm so glad I have this to keep me up on what the "good movies" are. Like the once that are respected and honored by important people out there. Generally I spend my year plunking down my $10 to see the Spider-Mans and i Know Who Killed Me's out there. Oh well.

12/12/07, 9:45 AM  
Anonymous will g said...

Your inclusion of Ashley Judd for Best Actress/Drama made my week. But I am curious where this comes from, personal preference or actual buzz? It is my favorite performance by ANYONE so far this year, and I can't recall any other mention of her anywhere in the awards handicapping, so Bravo! (Also, I consider the film more of a dark comedy than a drama, but that's just me.)

12/12/07, 11:26 PM  
Blogger RC said...

this is an odd year b/c i'm most excited about the comedy/musical actress race.

how has this become this years most competitive catagory???

i was pleased to see you didn't include Nikki...not that she wasn't great...but she was a one hit wonder, and i'd love see Keri Russell or Laura Linney slip in.

12/13/07, 1:17 AM  

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