2007 Verve Awards

2006 Verve Awards

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Friday, February 23, 2007


Oscar-ology: Predix and Polls #2

Yesterday's reader poll for Best Supporting Actor was fascinating: Eddie Murphy (32.4%) was picked to win, but both Alan Arkin (24.3%) and Jackie Earle Haley (21.6%) were close behind. Still a three-man race in our minds! Here's my rationale for the next six categories...do you agree, or am I a complete crack-smoker? (Tomorrow: Best Actor and Actress, and another poll!)

Adriana Barraza, Babel
Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal
Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine
WILL WIN/SHOULD WIN: Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Rinko Kikuchi, Babel
Despite a strong threat from Barraza and Breslin, Hudson is practically the holy grail for Dreamgirls lovers. She'll pull through.

Alejandro González Iñárritu, Babel
WILL WIN: Martin Scorsese, The Departed
Clint Eastwood, Letters From Iwo Jima
Stephen Frears, The Queen
SHOULD WIN: Paul Greengrass, United 93
It's Marty's year, and he's very deserving. Which makes it all the more bittersweet that the best direction this year will be left as distant memory come Sunday.

Sacha Baron Cohen & Anthony Hines & Peter Baynham & Dan Mazer, Borat
SHOULD WIN: Alfonso Cuarón & Timothy J. Sexton and David Arata and Mark Fergus & Hawk Ostby, Children of Men
WILL WIN: William Monahan, The Departed
Todd Field & Tom Perrotta, Little Children
Patrick Marber, Notes on a Scandal
In a sub-par field, Monahan urban gangster chic will easily impress Oscar voters. It's too bad the far less showy work by Cuaron and company will get lost in the shuffle.

SHOULD WIN: Guillermo Arriaga, Babel
Iris Yamashita, Letters From Iwo Jima
Michael Arndt, Little Miss Sunshine
Guillermo del Toro, Pan's Labyrinth
WILL WIN: Peter Morgan, The Queen
The gentle royal rhythms of Morgan's script will outweigh the more adventurous nominees in this category...including the deft, absorbing work of Arriaga on his epic exploration of connection.

Gustavo Santaolalla, Babel
Thomas Newman, The Good German
Philip Glass, Notes on a Scandal
WILL WIN: Javier Navarrete, Pan's Labyrinth
SHOULD WIN: Alexandre Desplat, The Queen
Providing most of the true fantasy in the Labyrinth, Navarrete will eke out a victory over stalwarts like Glass and Newman, as well as the most exciting member of the club, Desplat.

SHOULD WIN: “I Need to Wake Up”, An Inconvenient Truth
“Listen”, Dreamgirls
“Love You I Do”, Dreamgirls
WILL WIN: “Our Town”, Cars
“Patience”, Dreamgirls
With one movie splitting votes among three interchangeable nominees, that leaves Melissa Etheridge and Randy Newman duking it out. In a perfect world, it's no contest: Etheridge. But Oscar voters have an unnatural love of Newman, which is scary...and hard to bet against.

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