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Saturday, February 24, 2007


Oscar-ology: Predix and Polls #3

Closing in on the big prize...one more day until the magic happens...

Leonardo DiCaprio, Blood Diamond
Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson
Peter O'Toole, Venus
Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness
WILL WIN/SHOULD WIN: Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland
It's been no contest all year, and I don't expect Oscar Night to be any different. There's some support for Gosling and maybe a few old-timers for O'Toole, but neither will be enough to topple Idi Amin.

Penelope Cruz, Volver
SHOULD WIN: Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal
WILL WIN: Helen Mirren, The Queen
Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet, Little Children
Like the Best Actor race, this one has been over for months now. Only a Streep or Winslet upset, based on their bodies of work, are even thinkable. But trust me: it won't happen. Mirren is the safest bet of the evening.

Vilmos Zsigmond, The Black Dahlia
SHOULD WIN: Emmanuel Lubezki, Children of Men
Dick Pope, The Illusionist
WILL WIN: Guillermo Navarro, Pan's Labyrinth
Wally Pfister, The Prestige
As much as I disliked the film, it's iconic images -- the eyes on the hands, etc. -- will be remembered by Oscar voters in this category. Too bad, becuase Lubezki ran circles around Navarro in his spectacular work on Children of Men.

Yee Chung Man, Curse of the Golden Flower
Patricia Field, The Devil Wears Prada
Sharen Davis, Dreamgirls
WILL WIN/SHOULD WIN: Milena Canonero, Marie Antoinette
Consolata Boyle, The Queen
In a movie about the constrictions of royalty, the costumes are key...and Canonero doesn't disappoint, with garments as beautiful and intricate as they are intimidating and ominous. A great category with five great nominees, so I won't be disappointed if something else wins.

Stephen Mirrione and Douglas Crise, Babel
Steven Rosenblum, Blood Diamond
Alex Rodríguez and Alfonso Cuarón, Children of Men
WILL WIN: Thelma Schoonmaker, The Departed
SHOULD WIN: Clare Douglas, Christopher Rouse and Richard Pearson, United 93
Scorsese's longtime collaborator will triumph over better work, but there's no reason to be sad about it...Schoonmaker is a giant in the field, and a deserving winner.

Aldo Signoretti and Vittorio Sodano, Apocalypto
Kazuhiro Tsuji and Bill Corso, Click
WILL WIN/SHOULD WIN: David Martí and Montse Ribé, Pan's Labyrinth
In the most disappointing set of nominees all evening, there's really no contest: the overdone shmaltz of Pan's Labyrinth easily surpasses the overblown Apocalypto and the under-designed Click.

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