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Sunday, May 14, 2006

 

2006 Tony Predictions: The Plays

Okay, it's time to get serious. With only two days until the Tony Award nominations are announced, we lay down our guesses for the big drama awards here. Tomorrow, we'll place odds on the Musicals. Stay tuned!

BEST PLAY
ModFab Predicts: The History Boys; The Lieutenant of Inishmore; Rabbit Hole; Shining City
Spoiler: Three Days of Rain

In a category already established with a frontrunner (History Boys), a fierce competitor (Inishmore) and a possible upset (Rabbit Hole), the only question has been who gets the fourth slot. That question was probably answered this week, when The New York Times gave a gushing rave review to the late entry Shining City. Will the voters share the Times' love for Conor McPherson's play (that has been turning as many people on as off during previews)? If they don't, they could recognize the commercial power of Julia Roberts in Rain or Well, the pet project of veteran producer Liz McCann, which is supposed to close next week after small audiences and good reviews.

BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY
ModFab Predicts: Awake and Sing!; The Caine Mutiny Court-Martial; Faith Healer; The Odd Couple
Spoilers: The Constant Wife; Edward Albee's Seascape

Awake and Sing! is the sleeper hit of the season, with tremendous audience response and a strong creative pedigree (legendary playwright Clifford Odets, director Bartlett Sher, and Lincoln Center). Faith Healer is more admired than loved, but its pedigree is also impeccable (Dublin's Gate Theatre, no less!). After that, the race becomes competitive, with over a half-dozen revivals with mixed and/or negative reviews. We're guessing that Tony voters will prefer to reward shows that are still open, which will give a boost to mediocrities like Caine Mutiny and Odd Couple. (If they prefer to fete quality, however, they couldn't do better than last June's gorgeous Constant Wife and January's Seascape, which many voters will want to recognize somewhere.)

BEST SPECIAL THEATRICAL EVENT: Bridge and Tunnel

Sarah Jones' Obie-winning solo show is the only eligible contender. Which makes it a very tough race to call. Not.

Previously on ModFab:
Tony Predictions: The Actors
Tony Predictions: The Actresses
Tony Predictions: The Designers and Directors
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